JTSJake Swartz · Aug 28, 6:14 AM
Front end is doing the work again
Twos barely moved on the week while the long bond gave back half a point. That is not a growth
story, it is positioning. Watching the 2s10s into Friday's print, and I am not adding duration
until the curve stops arguing with the dots.
2s10s spread · annotated chart
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MRM. Reyes Does this change the
gold thesis from Tuesday, or is that independent?
JTSJake Swartz · Aug 27, 6:20 AM
FOMC rate odds, one month out
Market has 68.3% on hold at 350–375 for the next meeting, up from 62.6% a week ago.
A month back it was 70.1%. The whole distribution has moved almost nowhere while equities put in
a new high, which is the part worth sitting with.
CME FedWatch · probability table
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